Cloudy day (September 12, 2004)

One cannot help but feel somewhat apprehensive about reports of a mushroom cloud over North Korea. I would feel less apprehensive if it hadn’t occurred on the anniversary of North Korea’s foundation, which is apparently used as an opportunity to stage patriotic and inspiring events.

Can’t help it; I’m still not feeling all that much safer now that Saddam’s out of power. I know I’m meant to feel like Bush has done a wonderful thing, but the problem is… it only takes one bomb in the hands of a madman. Doesn’t matter if the bomb comes from a mythical weapons program in Iraq or a real weapons program in North Korea, except in the peskily practical sense that you can’t get a nuclear weapon out of a mythical weapons program.

Comments

*sigh*

I know I’m meant to feel like Bush has done a wonderful thing, but the problem is… it only takes one bomb in the hands of a madman. Doesn’t matter if the bomb comes from a mythical weapons program in Iraq or a real weapons program in North Korea[...]

Leaving the 'mythical' vs. 'real' distinction for later, this is all-or-nothing thinking. Is Russian roulette with one bullet equivalent to Russian roulette with two bullets?

[...]except in the peskily practical sense that you can’t get a nuclear weapon out of a mythical weapons program.

This is just cheap. Iraq had a nuclear weapons development program as far back as the 70s, and since 1980 had employed nerve gas on civilian populations, had started wars of aggression with two of its neighbors (Iran and Kuwait) and had launched missiles at two other countries (Israel and Saudi Arabia). North Korea just plain hasn't been able to do nearly as much damage.

Posted by: t. rev at September 12, 2004 12:54 PM

Is Russian roulette with one bullet equivalent to Russian roulette with two bullets?

No, but this isn't Russian roulette. If there was one chance and one chance only for the gun to go off, the analogy would be accurate -- but that's not the case. In this case, the trigger is pulled over and over again, and over time the difference between the two cases is minimized.

Re: damage -- which way does the trend line go? (Answer: downward.) I am, as I've said before, glad that Saddam is out of power. He was a bad man. However, conflating "Saddam is a bad man" with "Saddam is dangerous to the United States" is sloppy logic.

Posted by: Bryant at September 12, 2004 3:21 PM

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