I finally got around to breaking down the IOC members by coalition/non-coalition. Of the main Committee, 79 members come from non-coalition countries, not counting Mohamad Hasan from Indonesia, because he’s been suspended. Hm, make that 74 — there are five Swiss members and we’ll count them as neutral. 45 come from coalition countries, counting Taiwan as a coalition country even though the US didn’t list ‘em as part of the coalition. I kind of suspect that had more to do with mainland China than anything else.
The President of the IOC, Jacques Rogge, is from Belgium — non-coalition. Of the four Vice Presidents, two are from coalition countries and two are not. The other ten members of the Executive Board are mostly non-coalition: 6 non-coalition, 3 coalition, and 1 Swiss.
Conclusion: in the unlikely event that all the members agree with the politics of their countries, and assuming people still care a lot about this when the final selection is made, New York, London, and Madrid are not gonna be getting the Olympics. Paris is the probable victor, since Moscow is rather a troubled city. (This doesn’t take into account any additional negative effect from the USOC corruption issue.)
This kind of sucks as a possibility. New York could really use the estimated $11.3 billion, after all.