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The record says

So, how’d I do on predictions?

Arizona
I said it’d go Kerry, Clark, Dean in that order. It did.

Missouri
I said Kerry, Edwards, Dean. Yep.

Oklahoma
I said it’d go Clark, Edwards, and Kerry in a tight race. (Polls had Kerry ahead of Edwards for second.) Yep again.

South Carolina
Edwards won it pulling away, as per prediction.

Delaware
I said Lieberman would come in second to Kerry and then quit; I was right but only by a couple of hundred votes. Edwards nearly beat him. Lieberman did quit.

North Dakota
I said it’d be Kerry, then Clark, then Edwards. Dean beat Edwards for third.

New Mexico
I had Kerry beating Dean by only a few percentage points. I missed. Kerry beat Clark by 21 percentage points.

So not too bad. It wasn’t actually hard or anything; I just looked at the polls and then adjusted for the Edwards bounce. Everyone missed Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire, so I figured they’d miss him again this time, and I was right. Anyone can be a fairly accurate political prognosticator without too much effort.

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