So, how’d I do on predictions?
I said it’d go Kerry, Clark, Dean in that order. It did.
I said Kerry, Edwards, Dean. Yep.
I said it’d go Clark, Edwards, and Kerry in a tight race. (Polls had Kerry ahead of Edwards for second.) Yep again.
Edwards won it pulling away, as per prediction.
I said Lieberman would come in second to Kerry and then quit; I was right but only by a couple of hundred votes. Edwards nearly beat him. Lieberman did quit.
I said it’d be Kerry, then Clark, then Edwards. Dean beat Edwards for third.
I had Kerry beating Dean by only a few percentage points. I missed. Kerry beat Clark by 21 percentage points.
So not too bad. It wasn’t actually hard or anything; I just looked at the polls and then adjusted for the Edwards bounce. Everyone missed Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire, so I figured they’d miss him again this time, and I was right. Anyone can be a fairly accurate political prognosticator without too much effort.