Quick follow-up on how independent voters reacted to Bush last night: Gallup says independent voters preferred Kerry by a margin of 53% to 37%. Hear me now and believe me later! Bush is going to spend the next month firing up his base and relying on voter turnout to win this election. But Kerry still has a better get out the vote operation.
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I have the impression that the media generally tend to overestimate the prospects of liberal candidates, even in ‘objective’ polls. It is not clear to me (assuming this is the case!) how much of this should be attributed observer bias, and how much to superior vote tampering on the part of conservatives.
It appears to be the case that polls tend to underestimate conservative turnout by a few percent; Kevin Drum wrote about this a while ago, but I can’t be arsed to find the link. It was in relationship to Sharon over in Israel.
This is a good reason why Bush might be taking this approach.