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Can you hear the paper rip?

It’s about that time. I’ll probably live-blog the Oscars tonight, just because I like doing it. My commentary on the nominees is here. My picks for winners (and preferred winners if I had to pick from the nominees):

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx. Should be Clint Eastwood, but the Academy will steer clear of him this year. The political aspects to Million Dollar Baby didn’t help him.

Best Actress: hard to call, but I think Hilary Swank. (My other guess would be Catalina Moreno.) Kate Winslet should win it, though.

Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman. Should be Clive Owen, although the more I think about Sideways the more I remember Thomas Haden Church’s performance with fondness.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett will win. But they’re all really deserving performances. If I was pushed to decide, I’d give it to Virginia Madsen. No, Laura Linney. By a nose.

Best Animated Feature Film: Could just possibly be The Incredibles, as it should be.

Best Directing: The Aviator, cause Scorsese needs to win one and the Academy is getting nervous that he won’t direct another real masterpiece. Of the nominees, I guess I’d agree with that. It’s technically dazzling, even if the pacing is lumpy.

Best Picture: The Aviator for the same reasons. I’d give this one to Million Dollar Baby, though. (The performances made Million Dollar Baby great, not the directing, although Eastwood certainly did a good job on that side of the lens.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: I think Sideways will win, to make up for the lack of wins elsewhere, but I don’t feel confident about that prediction. Before Sunset should win.

Best Original Screenplay: Damned if I know, but I think Eternal Sunshine will take it. I’m still not confident about that. It’s my favorite screenplay of the movies nominated, however.

Tune in tonight to see how I did.

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