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Author: Bryant

Returning to duty

February 9, 2004
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Kevin Drum does a nice job of shedding light on the AWOL issue. He has a document which shows Bush reporting for duty, presumably in Alabama, on October 29th, 1972. That covers Bush’s comments on Meet The Press last Sunday. He also has a document which shows no Texas service after May of 1972, which also matches.

One begins to wonder why Bush hasn’t released his military records, considering this. Drum speculates that Bush was put on paper duty as a punishment; that would match with Bush’s refusal to take a physical. There’s going to be some mystery around this until and unless the records are released. Still, he’s clear on the AWOL/deserter issue and it would behoove us to acknowledge that lest we appear shrill and partisan.

Passionate spam

February 9, 2004
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I got three comments (on the same entry) in my Livejournal mirror encouraging me to go see The Passion of the Christ. This does not, in fact, convince me to adopt the recommended course of action.

This is pretty much the sort of thing that I anticipated: I don’t think Mel Gibson set out to make a dangerous movie, but I thought that it was the kind of movie that would encourage poor behavior unless he took counterbalancing steps. Spam comments aren’t dangerous, but they do show a distinct disregard for social mores. I expect more of the same, and possibly darker actions. Call me a cynic.

(Anonymous comments are still enabled over there, and I still don’t track IP addresses there, but I do screen anonymous comments. I won’t screen anything but spam.)

The next nominee

February 9, 2004
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Kerry has a 23 point lead in Virginia polls and a 24 point lead in Tennessee polls. Edwards needed to win those states, and it’s looking very unlikely.

Kerry also has a fairly commanding lead in the latest polls out of Wisconsin. There’s still a chance someone could turn it around there, but it’s unlikely.

Kings of smarm

February 9, 2004
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Last week’s Apprentice was intensely dull, so I’m only just now getting around to writing about it. Executive summary:

Sex still sells and the women are still using it. The contestants are stuck in the mode of individual achievement these days; they can’t stop running around long enough to delegate to non-contestants. Nick used some pretty good tactics to buy himself an out, and they worked. Bowie got kicked out for no good reason. Omarosa is smart enough to turn people around and get them to like her in one week flat.

This week’s, which I haven’t watched yet, scrambled the teams.

The bar has been set

February 8, 2004
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President Bush says, regarding his National Guard service in Alabama:

 There may be no evidence, but I did report; otherwise, I wouldn’t have been honorably discharged.  In other words, you don’t just say “I did something” without there being verification.  Military doesn’t work that way.  I got an honorable discharge, and I did show up in Alabama.

This really simplifies the question. It’s not about the honorable discharge, or whether or not it was OK to miss some service as long as you got the OK from your CO, or any of that. It’s about whether or not he showed up in Alabama. This isn’t a matter of missing documentation, either; it’s about documents which show no service in Alabama in 1972.

Character WISH

February 6, 2004
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This week’s Game WISH asks:

What are your characters’ mottoes, in ten words or less? Quotes and formal mottoes encouraged.

That’s fun! In no particular order:

Paul/Emoticon: For God, France, and humanity.

Reese: It’s all about the roads.

Mr. Wellstone: Fame follows fashion.

Cian: One must always journey to find wisdom.

Stick: Break dimensions, go to jail.

Clarice: Hail Britannia!

Constantine: Friends and family; blood and bone.

Jayson: Fortune follows.

(That last is a bit of a cheat, being my own family motto. But I like it.)

The record says

February 5, 2004
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So, how’d I do on predictions?

Arizona
I said it’d go Kerry, Clark, Dean in that order. It did.

Missouri
I said Kerry, Edwards, Dean. Yep.

Oklahoma
I said it’d go Clark, Edwards, and Kerry in a tight race. (Polls had Kerry ahead of Edwards for second.) Yep again.

South Carolina
Edwards won it pulling away, as per prediction.

Delaware
I said Lieberman would come in second to Kerry and then quit; I was right but only by a couple of hundred votes. Edwards nearly beat him. Lieberman did quit.

North Dakota
I said it’d be Kerry, then Clark, then Edwards. Dean beat Edwards for third.

New Mexico
I had Kerry beating Dean by only a few percentage points. I missed. Kerry beat Clark by 21 percentage points.

So not too bad. It wasn’t actually hard or anything; I just looked at the polls and then adjusted for the Edwards bounce. Everyone missed Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire, so I figured they’d miss him again this time, and I was right. Anyone can be a fairly accurate political prognosticator without too much effort.