Category: Politics

Most amusing quote so far in the Massachusetts legislature gay marriage debate:

”God destroyed a whole city over this issue. We’re trying to save our city, our state. They see the gays and lesbians out here voicing their opinions and they know it’s wrong and we want them to know that we stood up for what’s right.”

Beware, Boston! What happened to Sodom and Gomorrah could happen to you!

You know, things aren’t going that poorly. I was listening to Dennis and Callahan on WEEI this morning on my way into work; unsurprisingly, they did an hour or so on the gay marriage issues. Dennis was sympathetic, by which I mean he told Callahan that he was a closed-minded idiot for yelling at pro-gay marriage callers, and by which I mean that he said he thought the term “marriage” was important and would strengthen gay couples.

That’s not why I felt all uplifted, though. What I liked was hearing the middle-class Boston accent working class guys call in and say “Yeah, you know, it’s no skin off my back. Let ‘em be married if they wanna.” I liked the guy who called in and said “Look, I was raised by two guys who didn’t happen to be gay, and I came out just fine. What’s wrong with having two father figures in the house?” I liked the guy who called in and said “I’m a conservative Republican, but my son came out to me a couple of years ago and I think he’s right; he should be able to marry another guy if he wants to.”

Go ahead, Finneran. Get a constitutional amendment out in front of people. I don’t think they’ll ratify it.

Kevin Drum does a nice job of shedding light on the AWOL issue. He has a document which shows Bush reporting for duty, presumably in Alabama, on October 29th, 1972. That covers Bush’s comments on Meet The Press last Sunday. He also has a document which shows no Texas service after May of 1972, which also matches.

One begins to wonder why Bush hasn’t released his military records, considering this. Drum speculates that Bush was put on paper duty as a punishment; that would match with Bush’s refusal to take a physical. There’s going to be some mystery around this until and unless the records are released. Still, he’s clear on the AWOL/deserter issue and it would behoove us to acknowledge that lest we appear shrill and partisan.

Kerry has a 23 point lead in Virginia polls and a 24 point lead in Tennessee polls. Edwards needed to win those states, and it’s looking very unlikely.

Kerry also has a fairly commanding lead in the latest polls out of Wisconsin. There’s still a chance someone could turn it around there, but it’s unlikely.

President Bush says, regarding his National Guard service in Alabama:

 There may be no evidence, but I did report; otherwise, I wouldn’t have been honorably discharged.  In other words, you don’t just say “I did something” without there being verification.  Military doesn’t work that way.  I got an honorable discharge, and I did show up in Alabama.

This really simplifies the question. It’s not about the honorable discharge, or whether or not it was OK to miss some service as long as you got the OK from your CO, or any of that. It’s about whether or not he showed up in Alabama. This isn’t a matter of missing documentation, either; it’s about documents which show no service in Alabama in 1972.

According to Sistani’s office, there was no assassination attempt. That’s a distinct relief.

Look! Consequences.

Consider this as, perhaps, retribution for the suicide bombings up in Kurdish territory.

So, how’d I do on predictions?

Arizona
I said it’d go Kerry, Clark, Dean in that order. It did.

Missouri
I said Kerry, Edwards, Dean. Yep.

Oklahoma
I said it’d go Clark, Edwards, and Kerry in a tight race. (Polls had Kerry ahead of Edwards for second.) Yep again.

South Carolina
Edwards won it pulling away, as per prediction.

Delaware
I said Lieberman would come in second to Kerry and then quit; I was right but only by a couple of hundred votes. Edwards nearly beat him. Lieberman did quit.

North Dakota
I said it’d be Kerry, then Clark, then Edwards. Dean beat Edwards for third.

New Mexico
I had Kerry beating Dean by only a few percentage points. I missed. Kerry beat Clark by 21 percentage points.

So not too bad. It wasn’t actually hard or anything; I just looked at the polls and then adjusted for the Edwards bounce. Everyone missed Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire, so I figured they’d miss him again this time, and I was right. Anyone can be a fairly accurate political prognosticator without too much effort.

The Massachusetts Supreme Court just ruled that civil unions won’t satisfy the constitutional requirement to permit gay marriage. This guarantees that a Massachusetts constitutional amendment will wind up on the state ballot in 2006. Despite all the whining about judicial activism, this is the only way Massachusetts voters were going to get to vote on the issue — the Massachusetts legislature wasn’t going to go out of their way to put a constitutional amendment allowing gay marriage on the ballot. Seems to me that a) the judges acted correctly, fulfilling their obligation to rule on Constitutional questions and b) their actions have made it possible for the matter to be considered by the voters. Ironic.

Welcome to your handy guide (biased and slanted) to today’s primaries.

We have seven primaries today, which will greatly affect the chances of three and a half candidates. (If Kucinich, Lieberman, or Sharpton win any of the primaries, that will have an effect as well, but I’m dubious about their chances. Which is a shame, at least in one case.) Dean’s strategy is to spend all his money on Michigan and Washington in an effort to win both of those states. Winning Michigan would put him solidly back in the race. However, he’s not expecting to win anything today.

So we have Clark, Kerry, and Edwards. Kerry’s still in the race unless he suffers a catastrophic failure today. He needs to win at least three of the states he’s projected to win, and really wants to win all five of them to cement his status before the upcoming contests with Dean. Edwards and Clark both have to win the states they’ve targetted. Here’s the breakdown.

Arizona
Not very tight race between Kerry and Clark, with Kerry leading. Clark would love to win this state but it seems unlikely. Dean would like to beat Edwards here. My guess: Kerry, Clark, Dean.

Missouri
Kerry has Missouri almost wrapped up. Edwards wants to get enough votes here to pick up some delegates. Clark is nowhere in the mix. My guess: Kerry, Edwards, Dean.

Oklahoma
This is Clark’s must win; unfortunately, Edwards and Kerry are pushing him hard. Kerry more than Edwards. If Clark loses this state he’s more or less out of it barring a really unexpected victory elsewhere. If Edwards wins this state he’s in excellent shape. If I had to bet money on this one, I’d say Clark, then Edwards, then Kerry.

South Carolina
This is Edwards’ must win. Kerry is polling well here. Dean would like to beat Clark here, but the race for third is neck and neck. It’s sort of bad that Clark can’t beat Kerry for second in a southern state; it weakens the argument that Kerry can’t win over southern voters. Edwards wins this pulling away, with Kerry a strong second.

Delaware
Lieberman is making a stand here. He’ll come in second to Kerry. Fairly unimportant state this time around except insofar as it’s where Lieberman has spent all his time and energy and he still won’t win it. Lieberman’s campaign ends here.

North Dakota
Kerry has a fairly big lead over Clark. Edwards is a distant third. I expect that order to hold in the polls.

New Mexico
Dean recently said he could win this state. He’s running second to Kerry in the polls, with Clark nipping at his heels. Maybe he was looking at old polls? Maybe he has interesting internal numbers. I’d say Kerry wins it but only by a few percentage points.